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An early upset

A funny thing happened to Barack Obama on his way to what was supposed to be a one-two victory punch in Iowa and New Hampshire. He lost the nation’s first primary when the polls and the pundits said he would win New Hampshire.

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton’s victory, coupled with John McCain’s expected comeback win on the GOP side, throws open the races for both political parties.

Even the casual voter should be excited about the prospect of a wide-open Republican field, and what could boil down to a two-person race between Obama and Clinton on the Democratic side — though don’t count out John Edwards, the so-called sleeper candidate. Edwards must make a move soon, however.

Give credit to James Fisher, associate professor of political science at Edinboro University of Pennsylvania, for picking Clinton when the polls said otherwise.

And while Michael Federici, a political-science professor at Mercyhurst College, predicted that Obama would win New Hampshire, he did say that the Granite State typically doesn’t mimic Iowa.

Even so, Obama only lost by 3 percentage points in a race that the networks didn’t call until two-thirds of the precincts had reported.

Exit polling showed that women and older voters helped give Clinton her crucial win.

Next up? Michigan on Tuesday.

All of this means the major players should still be alive for awhile, at least until Feb. 5 when 22 states hold primaries or caucuses in what’s being called “Super-Duper Tuesday’’ or “Tsunami Tuesday.”

— John Guerriero

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on January 9, 2008 11:57 AM.

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