Before the Iowa caucuses last week, Michael Federici, a political-science professor at Mercyhurst College, correctly predicted that Barack Obama would win on the Democratic side. But he also incorrectly picked Mitt Romney to win on the Republican side.

Still, he’s batting .500. He’s putting that lofty average on the line Tuesday, with predictions that Obama and Republican John McCain will win their party primaries in New Hampshire. Obama and McCain could very well win.

But Federici said the independent-minded New Hampshire almost always refuses to mimic the results in Iowa. “It doesn’t like to coronate, if you will, the winners of the Iowa caucuses,’’ he said.

The exception to the rule could be Obama. Obama’s momentum makes him unstoppable in the short run, Federici said.

We’ll know the “Live Free or Die’’ state’s take on the candidates Tuesday night.

Some presidential ambitions will be on the line. That’s a large deal for a small state.

— John Guerriero