It doesn't happen often, so I'm going to seize the opportunity to gloat a little after a weekend in which I went 11-2 straight up and against the spread. The crown jewel of a good pickin' day came when my upset special -- Chiefs over the Broncos -- materialized on Sunday afternoon.
The two games I missed involved NFC East teams: The Redskins over the Cowboys -- although I had Dallas minus the points -- and the Eagles over the Bears -- which might have happened had Andy Reid not suddenly become the most conservative coach in NFL history after the Eagles reached second-and-goal.
Even better, I had all three local teams winning -- and they all won, which meant fewer ornery e-mails than usual this week.
At any rate, it was a good week. I'm sure there won't be many more as sweet.
On to this week's review...
The pick: Broncos (-9 ½) at Chiefs: The Broncos have been flirting with losses. Today one finds them. Chiefs, 21-20
The reality: Chiefs, 33-19. If you had the Chiefs in the upset and in a 33-point pool you were smiling this week.
The pick: Browns at Bengals (-3 ½): It's crazy picking the Browns on the road. Except in Cincinnati. Browns, 23-20
The reality: Browns, 20-12. It wasn't pretty. It didn't need to be. Browns fans can breathe again -- for now.
The pick: Texans at Jaguars (-7 ½): The Jags aren't pretty to watch but they still play pretty good defense. Jaguars, 23-14
The reality: Jaguars, 30-27 (OT). Josh Scobee for mayor of Jacksonville. Heck, make him governor.
The pick: Cardinals at Jets (-1): Warner vs. Favre. Winner buys the Bran Flakes. Jets, 24-21
The reality: Jets, 56-35. 57 combined second-half points by the two teams. That was fun.
The pick: 49ers at Saints (-4 ½): Even without Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey, Drew Brees has more weapons than J.T. O'Sullivan. Saints, 35-21
The reality: Saints, 31-17. With Lane Kiffin gone Mike Nolan is on the hottest seat in California.
The pick: Falcons at Panthers (-7): Carolina has more defense than Matt Ryan can handle right now. Panthers, 26-16
The reality: Panthers, 24-9. Carolina had more defense than Matt Ryan could handle.
The pick: Vikings at Titans (-3): It wasn't that long ago Jeff Fisher supposedly was on the hot seat. Now he's looking pretty secure. Titans, 24-17
The reality: Titans, 30-17. The Titans are allowing a league-low 11.5 points per game.
The pick: Packers at Bucs (-1 ½): Packers need Ryan Grant to be at full strength, and that seems doubtful. Bucs, 21-19
The reality: Bucs, 30-21. Earnest Graham is on pace to rush for 1,336 yards.
The pick: Bills (-8) at Rams: The schedule-maker continues to repay the Bills in spades for past cruelties. Bills, 24-14
The reality: Bills, 31-14. The Bills are in control of the AFC East, and they'll be favored again this week against the Cardinals.
The pick: Chargers (-7 ½) at Raiders: This is the week the AFC contenders start to find their legs, and the Chargers are a contender. Chargers, 31-23
The reality: Chargers, 28-18. Al Davis made up his mind to change coaches long before this latest Raiders loss.
The pick: Redskins at Cowboys (-11): Jim Zorn is doing a heck of a job, but he won't be the one standing in against Dallas' pass rush today. Cowboys, 28-21
The reality: Redskins, 26-24. Okay, you won't believe it, but I really, really wanted to pick this upset last week.
The pick: Eagles (-3) at Bears: It should be a happy homecoming for Donovan McNabb, who has rediscovered his youth so far this season. Eagles, 23-17
The reality: Bears, 24-20. Turns out not having Brian Westbrook and Shawn Andrews was too much for Philly to overcome.
The pick: Ravens at Steelers (- ½): Expect Ben Roethlisberger and his line to stand in tougher against the blitz this week at home. Steelers, 27-10
The reality: Steelers, 23-20 (OT). It was ugly, but we knew it would be.
Last week:
Straight up: 11-2
Spread: 11-2
Season
Straight up: 42-18
Spread: 36-24
-- John Dudley