Okay, so after five weeks it appears no team is poised to make a Patriots-like run at 16-0 this season. And, really, that's no surprise. Even the two remaining unbeaten teams -- the 5-0 Titans and the 4-0 Giants -- figure to each have at least a handful of losses before the final playoff seeding is complete.
But if there is one theme emerging through the early weeks of the season, it's defense. The Giants (49 points) and Titans (56 points) have two of three lowest point total allowed in the league. The Steelers (4-1), Panthers (4-1) and Bears (3-2) also have played great defense so far among the division leaders.
Meanwhile, explosive offenses like the Colts (2-2), Chargers (2-3) and Saints (2-3) have really struggled.
It's all made for some interesting picking so far.
On to the picks -- and the reality:
The pick: Chiefs at Panthers (-9 1/2): The Chiefs used all their upset karma last week. Panthers, 23-13
The reality: Panthers, 34-0. Herm Edwards isn't this incapable a coach, but he will probably end up paying for the lack of talent in KC.
The pick: Colts (-3) at Texans: Indy is overdue for an outburst, and the Texans are allowing 33 points per game. Colts, 34-21
The reality: Colts, 31-27. It's amazing to think that the Colts could actually be 0-5 right now the way they've played.
The pick: Titans (-3) at Ravens: Don't be surprised if the Ravens look spent today after a big effort in Pittsburgh. Titans, 17-14
The reality: Titans, 13-10. Second tough loss in a row for the Ravens, who are as tough as any 2-3 team in the league.
The pick: Chargers (-6 ½) at Dolphins: A win would signify a Dolphins turnaround, but don't count on it. Chargers, 27-17
The reality: Dolphins, 17-10. The Bill Parcells effect already is being felt in South Florida -- and beyond.
The pick: Redskins at Eagles (-6): Philly can't afford to slip again after an uninspired effort against the Bears. Eagles, 24-20
The reality: Redskins, 23-17. Eagles blew a 14-0 lead and suddenly find themselves in real danger of falling out of the NFC East race.
The pick: Bears (-3 ½) at Lions: After a big win over the Eagles, the Bears get a bye. Bears, 26-13
The reality: Bears, 34-7. The mediocre Bears are looking like the best team in a bad NFC North.
The pick: Falcons at Packers (no line): If Aaron Rodgers can't go, the Pack will roll out a rookie at QB, and things could get interesting. Packers, 20-17
The reality: Falcons, 27-24. Atlanta continues it's amazing one-season turnaround at 3-2, while the Packers are showing some tread wear.
The pick: Seahawks at Giants (-7): The Giants are too well-rested to succumb to the upset bug. Giants, 27-20
The reality: Giants, 44-6. The Giants are making it look easy right now, while the Seahawks appear to be in real trouble.
The pick: Bucs at Broncos (-3): It's tough to foresee this being a defensive struggle, and a shootout is not good news for the Bucs. Broncos, 31-21
The reality: Broncos, 16-13. As it turns out, it was a defensive struggle, and ,surprisingly, Denver did some tackling.
The pick: Patriots (-3) at 49ers: Memo to Boston sports fans -- savor the Sox this fall. 49ers, 21-20
The reality: Patriots, 30-21. Give the Patriots credit -- they've feasted on a soft early schedule for a 3-1 start.
The pick: Bills at Cardinals (-1): For the Bills to go to 5-0 the defense will need to come up big. Bills, 23-20
The reality: Cardinals, 41-17. Trent Edwards suffered a concussion and gained instant job security.
The pick: Bengals at Cowboys (-17): Let's assume the Cowboys can put aside their soap opera long enough for a rout. Cowboys, 44-17
The reality: Cowboys, 31-22. The swagger has taken a hit, but the Cowboys managed to grind out a win.
The pick: Steelers at Jaguars (-4): This matchup doesn't bode well for the banged-up Steelers, but they'll find a way to beat a team that's had their number. Steelers, 20-17
The reality: Steelers, 26-21. Given their injuries, as big a regular-season win as the Steelers have had since 2005.
The pick: Vikings at Saints (-3): Red Childress' seat will get a little hotter after the Saints drop the Vikings to 1-4. Saints, 27-24
The reality: Vikings, 30-27. The Saints are still trying to recapture the magic of their 2006 season -- and mostly failing to do it.
Last week
Straight up: 7-7
Spread: 8-6
Season
Straight up: 49-25
Spread: 44-30