I haven't really heard anyone talk about this, but what it a reasonable number of games we should expect the Browns to win next year?

The Browns will have a first-year head coach (Eric Mangini), a first-year general manager (maybe George Kokinis) and, in all likelihood, a quarterback opening the regular season as a starter for the first time (Brady Quinn).

They will be the league's only team with four games against conference finalists (AFC North rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh), and through the NFL's scheduling rotation also will play two other playoff teams from this season (San Diego and Minnesota).

According to the league's schedule rotation, the Browns will play the following non-division games in 2009: San Diego, Denver, Oakland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay and the fourth-place teams from the two AFC divisions they aren't scheduled to play, which would be Jacksonville and Buffalo.

We don't know two important scheduling factors yet -- the home-away matchups or the timing of the games. Both can be critical. (For example, facing the Colts in September this past season was vastly different from facing them in December.)

But let's assume the Browns should beat the Raiders, Chiefs, Lions and Packers. That's four wins. Give them a split of the Jaguars-Bills games. That's five wins. Also chalk up a split with the Bengals, so we're at six wins.

Now you have to ask yourself if the Browns will be capable of beating any of the following teams: Steelers, Ravens, Broncos, Chargers, Vikings and Bears.

A win against any one of those teams -- home or away -- would have to be considered an upset. If you're feeling really generous, give the Browns one win in those games, which would mean a 7-9 record. If you're just crazy gaga over Mangini and Quinn, lose your mind and give them two big upsets, which would get them to 8-8.

While 8-8 probably would be a coup, by no means would 7-9 be a total disaster, especially considering that the Browns will be putting in a new offense and presumably making fairly extensive changes defensively.

A 7-9 record, though, assumes the Browns will win all the games they should win, and that almost never happens. So 6-10 or 5-11 might be more likely, with a second straight 4-12 finish not entirely out of the question.

My best guess at this point: 5-11, but more important than that will be whether Quinn displays a grasp of the offense and an ability to become a leader, and whether the defense shows some cohesiveness and the toughness it takes to stop the run, which is mandatory in the AFC North.

-- Friday's column looks at whether the Steelers have any shot at stopping Arizona receiver Larry Fitzgerald from putting up huge numbers in the Super Bowl. No one else has done it this postseason, and the Fitzgerald factor might be the single biggest storyline in next week's game.

-- John Dudley