Things I'm thinking about this weekend's games:

-- I'm with Mike Tomlin on the third-time jinx. I don't think it's any tougher to beat a team in the playoffs after beating them twice in the regular season. As usual, the keys for the Steelers will be avoiding turnovers and their ability to run the ball. If they do those two things it really shouldn't matter who they play or how many times they've played them, they'll have a good chance to win.

-- I interviewed Northwestern High School graduate Cody Cipalla yesterday for a Sunday column. Cipalla played with Flacco at Delaware last season and he said he doesn't think Flacco will flinch despite playing in the AFC title game as a rookie on the road. I would go along with that based on what I've seen of Flacco. Although I would add that I don't think he is good enough to win the game for the Ravens. They will need to win with defense and by running the ball.

-- I'm still trying to figure out why the Panthers tried to cover Larry Fitzgerald with a linebacker and kept a safety deep last week, which gave Fitzgerald huge seams to run his routes. Fitzgerald single-handedly killed Carolina in the first half. He was the best offensive player on the field with Anquan Boldin out and there is no explanation for the way the Panthers defended him. I expect Philly to have a much better defensive game plan this week.

-- As is usually the case during the week before a Steelers-Ravens game, Hines Ward is getting plenty of attention because of the history of smack talk between him and members of Baltimore's defense. But the most important receiver on the field Sunday for Steelers offense probably will be tight end Heath Miller, who can slip underneath when the Ravens blitz and catch passes in front of the safeties. I won't be surprised if Miller has a bigger game than Ward.

-- Donovan McNabb vs. Kurt Warner is a great matchup for fans who like veteran quarterbacks, but the NFC title game probably won't be decided by quarterback play. For the Eagles, the key to winning is getting the ball in Brian Westrbook's hands, and having Westbrook healthy enough to make plays. For the Cardinals, it's getting enough out of their running game to slow down the Eagles blitz, which will allow Warner to get the ball to his receivers. The Eagles' offense has been wildly inconsistent, putting up 44 on the Cowboys a week after scoring three against the Redskins. But their defense has been steady pretty much all season.

-- As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, good defense seems to be the rule in the playoffs this season. The Steelers, Ravens and Eagles rank 1-2-3 in the league defensively, while the Cardinals are the only top-five offense to make the playoffs. An Eagles-Steelers or Eagles-Ravens Super Bowl matchup would be fascinating for enthusiasts of defensive football, but it might be more interesting to see how it affects the free-agent market for defensive players and the draft, as teams like the Saints, Broncos and Texans, who ranked 1-2-3 offensively, try to upgrade their lousy defenses.

-- Of the remaining teams, the Eagles have the most balance between offense and defense. Their defense ranks third overall and their offense ninth overall. They were one of only two playoff teams -- the other was the Giants -- to rank in the top 10 offensively and defensively.

-- John Dudley