At the beginning of my meteorology career, my dad, who is also a meteorologist, told me that the worst storms are the ones that sneak up on you.
This is the WSEE parking lot at 10am on December 5, 2007. This after lake effect snow surprised every meteorologist in town.
First, let me say that forecasting is NOT an exact science. There are no magic computer programs that come right out and give a perfect forecast. That means that Mother Nature leaves a lot of room for interpretation, so occasionally we miss some signs that something "BIG" may be brewing.
This was the case during the lake effect event of December 5, 2007. The day before, the computer models were hinting that the the lake effect snow bands were going to taper off, and the radar agreed. We were just waiting on an Alberta Clipper to spread a meager 1-3" of snow. However, that is not what happened. The winds made a little shift, and were first coming out of the WSW (normal lake shore lake effect situation), then the NE (a rare "reverse lake effect" flow). After 7 straight hours of snow, the National Weather Service finally issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Erie County, and the lake shore of Ashtabula County.
We were all surprised. This one creeped up on us, and it looks like my "old man" was right... It was also the worst one for the city this year.
That is why I love weather, though. It is not cut and dry. It is not exact. It IS a challenge, almost like a game. This time the Storm Team gave Mother Nature a rare victory. I guess that is where the saying "Any given Sunday" came from. Though, this time it was a Tuesday.
Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist