Another winter storm is going to blow through the region today. The particular path of the "Low" will bring the potential of freezing rain and sleet to much of the area.

This is the projected path of a winter storm passing through the area between March 4th and 5th.

Warmer air to the south of this system will keep southern areas in a rainy situation, while the colder air to the north will provide for wet snow. We, however, are stuck in the middle, where anything goes when it comes to precipitation.

The National Weather Services has several weather alerts associated with this storm. You can find them at weather.wsee.tv.

These are weather alerts at the time of this blog entry, and may no longer be in effect. You can see that these alerts basically follow the "icy" portion of the storm's path.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

When you see certain things on a skew-t, a diagram that gives meteorologists a vertical profile of the atmosphere, you know you are in trouble. Our trouble today and tonight is ice.

This is a Skew-T/Log-P diagram. This one shows, by the black lines, temperatures increasing with height. Temperatures (in celsius) increase from left to right, and height increases from bottom to top of this diagram. We can see by the black lines, that the temperature is increasing with height, while temperatures at the surface are around freezing, which is 0 degrees Celsius.

Remember, freezing rain is liquid precipitation until it comes into contact with an object that has a temperature at, or below freezing, where the liquid instantly freezes. That is what we are looking at.

Above is a picture of my sliding glass door glazed with ice. This formed in a very short period of time. Lucy, the big, brown dog is blurred in the background by the ice.

While looking at the conditions at the time of the picture, we can see that the surface is below freezing. Since the rain was a liquid until it made contact, we can easily assume the temperature aloft was warmer.

Keep in mind, when there is an icy glaze, untreated roadways, sidewalks, driveways, and parking lots are very slippery. You should exercise extreme caution in these conditions.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Here are some icy images taken after the March 4th through 5th winter storm...

This is a sign covered in ice taken in Griswold Park in Downtown Erie.

This is the antenna of one of our engineering vans covered in a glaze of ice.

This is the mirror of the engineering van.

This is a tree in Griswold Park covered with ice. This was the scenario across the area. A layer of ice like this adds extra weight and stress to limbs, causing them to crash down. This is the reason for the several power outages and blocked roadways this morning.

This is another view of the trees in Griswold Park.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Another storm appears to be brewing. With this latest round of wintry weather on the way, we find ourselves doing the same old dance... Watching for that "mixed bag" of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow.

So here is how the Storm Team Expects this storm to pan out...

FORECAST IMAGE FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 6TH.

Today (Thursday), we have no worries. We are in between storms, so we get the chance to enjoy some tranquil weather with temperatures above freezing. This will allow for the ice to melt off of the trees and power lines.

FORECAST IMAGE FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 7TH.

Tomorrow is a different story. The moisture associated with this storm system will pump into the area. Again, this is going to be an "anything goes" start to the storm as we will be walking that thin line between the wet precipitation, and the white precipitation. Needless to say late in the day, we are looking for a transition to all snow as the low passes to our east. That will put us in the cold portion of this one.

FORECAST IMAGE FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 8TH.

The snow will continue to fly Friday night through much of Saturday. With this particular storm, we are planning on more snow than the storm before. Hopefully that means the ice potential will not last quite as long.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Here is the latest on the next round of winter weather making its way through the region...

The good news, if you can call it that, is that the icy, mixed precipitation will stay primarily to the south. Areas nearby that could see ice Friday are Mercer, Venango, Clarion, and Forest Counties. The rest of the viewing area is expected to stay in the colder air, which means snow. A general 2-4" can be expected, but where the rain mixes in, you will see less accumulation.

Saturday is a little tricky. As this storm continues its progression through the region, the cold air will continue to wrap in from the North and West, however a warm push from the South will bring the possibility of sleet to some of our Eastern viewers. These areas are Warren, McKean, and Cattaraugus counties. Your precipitation will be mainly snow, it is just that sleet is also possible. Everyone else will see blowing and drifting snow with an additional 4-7".

Sunday is where the storm finally starts to pull out of the region. We will still see the potential for a couple of inches to acuumulate before all is said and done. Even though the falling snow will start to fizzle out, it will remain on the windy side, so blowing and drifting are still possible. The sunshine will start to break out later in the day on Sunday, but that will be too little too late to salvage the weekend.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE STorm Team Meteorologist

Here are some snow totals as of Friday Night, March 7th.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Nearly 11 inches in my back yard as of 8am Saturday Morning

Lucy, The Big Brown Dog shows that there is a lot of snow in the front yard too.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

While official numbers are not in at the time of this posting, it is safe to say that the region has well over a foot of snow, and this is probably the worst single winter storm in at least a few years. Since I don't have totals yet, here are some pictures...

PICTURE COURTESY OF ROBERT CASWELL AT 2ND ST. & CHAUTAUQUA BLVD. IN ERIE.

PICTURE COURTESY OF ROBERT CASWELL AT 2ND ST. & CHAUTAUQUA BLVD. IN ERIE.

THIS IS THE ON RAMP TO I-79 NORTHBOUND FROM I-90 WEST. MY WIFE WAS DRIVING WHILE I TOOK THIS PICTURE THROUGH THE WINDSHIELD.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

The worst is over. Now it is time to dig out, and time to brag about how much snow we have. So, here are the numbers...

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorolgoist

Here are more pictures from the winter storm that hit the region March 7th, 8th, and 9th...

THIS PICTURE IS COURTESY OF DANA MOOSE. THIS IS ON 11TH STREET IN ERIE.

LUCY THE BIG, BROWN DOG SHOWS THE SNOW WAS EVEN DEEPER ON SUNDAY!

WHILE MY TAPE MEASURE ONLY REGISTERED ABOUT 17 INCHES IN MY BACK YARD, SOME DRIFTS WERE OVER 3 FEET DEEP!

THIS IS SNOW THAT IS HANGING OVER THE ROOF OF MY HOUSE.

MY HERO! ENOUGH SAID.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

While we will see some rain and snow around the regions through the next few days, the Storm Team is focused on a possible storm brewing for the weekend.

THIS IS THE GFS MODEL OUTPUT FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 15TH. YOU CAN SEE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF ERIE, WITH PRECIPITATION. THE RED AND BLUE LINES ARE LINES OF CONSTANT "THICKNESS". THE THICKNESS OF A PARTICULAR LEVEL GIVES US AN INDICATION AS TO WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO EXPECT, AS THICKNESSS IS A FUNCTION OF HEAT.

THIS IS THE SAME GFS OUTPUT WITH OUR AREA HIGHLIGHTED TO MAKE IT EASIER TO READ.

This is the GFS model output for this Saturday. As you can see, a disturbance is moving its way toward our area. Right now it appears that this storm will move just enough to our south where we will see a mix of rain and snow. This, as we will be close enough to the warm air. You can see the red and blue "dotted" lines. The line with the "540" on it is what we are using to determine the difference between the rain and snow. North of the "534" line is where the precipitation usually falls as just snow.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

After 1.6 inches of snow last night at Erie International Airport, the official snow tally continues to rise! We have now had 28.3" for the month, and 113.1" of snow this year.

This little bit of snow pushed this March's snowfall into the number four spot when it comes to greatest snowfalls in March.

Also, we are less than 2 inches away from making the top ten list for snowiest winters.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

We are flirting with entering this winter in the top ten when it comes to amount of snowfall. We, at this point are less than two inches away from reaching that point. I have recently found that it is awful hard to garner enough support to start cheering Mother Nature to give us that last little bit.

Since I cannot find too many people to back me, I had to look for support from our furry friends. Here is a video of my big, brown dog, Lucy having fun in the snow.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

While we are on the brink of one of the snowiest season on record, the on thing we cannot deny is that spring is on the way. In honor of that, the Storm Team is helping you count down!

Spring officially begins March 20 at 1:48 A.M. EDT (March 20, 05:48 Universal Time), that is the exact time that the sun will pass over the equator. The proper term for this is the "Vernal Equinox". We'll talk more about this process later.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

For most of the week, the St. Patrick's Parade in Downtown Erie looked like it was going to be messy. The good news is, now, most of the models are keeping the precipitation down to the south for parade time! We still need to keep a close watch on how this scenario plays out because the precipitation will not be that far to the south. A minor shift in the models could have a big impact on the chances for "natural confetti" during the parade.

Above are four different models for 2pm, Saturday (parade time). They all agree that the precipitaion will stay to our south. It will be cooler, though. You can see the "540 Line" (a blue, "dotted" line on all of the models except the MM5, with the number "540" on it) is down to our south meaning colder air will be over head. We usually use the "540 Line" as the rain/snow line. We are not expecting precipitation, so we will use it today to let us know that the mild temperatures will not be sticking around for the parade.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

When it comes to the average St. Patrick's day, in respects to weather, here is what we can expect in Erie...

Ray O'Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

This is a great question since equinox means "equal night". However, if you look at the sunrise and sunset times for our first day of Spring (March 20th), you will see that the sun rises at 7:23am and sets at 7:33pm. This is not equal at all.

From the U.S. Naval Observatory (The primary source for sunrise/sunset times) website:

"In the northern hemisphere, at latitude 5 degrees the dates of equal day and night occur about February 25 and October 15; at latitude 40 degrees they occur about March 17 and September 26. On the dates of the equinoxes, the day is about 7 minutes longer than the night at latitudes up to about 25 degrees, increasing to 10 minutes or more at latitude 50 degrees."
--http://aa.usno.navy.mil

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Ahhh, Spring is finally in the air! We are about to experience the Vernal, or Spring Equinox. This is the time when the sun makes its transition from South of the Equator into the Northern Hemisphere. The exact time of this is 1:48AM EDT on March 20th.

To understand how this works, lets take a look at a globe. After this look, you will never view the globe the same way again!.

Notice that this, and every other globe is tilted. This is not a defective globe, but a representation of the Earth's axis, which is tilted 23.5 degrees. This tilt is very important when it comes to our weather and our seasons.

Now, there are two times during the year when the Earth is perpendicular with the Sun's radiaition (the Sun's radiation hits us at a right angle, or straight on). These times are our Vernal (Spring) and Autumnal (Fall) Equinoxes. Many believe that the Earth is no longer tilted at this point. That is not true, though. The Earth is ALWAYS tilted at 23.5 degrees. Only from the sun's perspective we are not tilted towards or away at this time! These are the Equinoxes. One happens to start Spring, the other to start Fall.

This brings me to my next point. Every year the Storm Team is asked, "Can you balance an egg on it's end during the equinox?" The answer is YES. Keep in mind, however, that you can balance an egg on its end every other day of the year too, even with the 23.5 degree tilt! It just takes gravity, a steady hand, and excellent egg-balancing skills. The equinox will have no bearing on the egg's ability to stand on its end, so you should save the balancing act for your checkbook!

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

First of all, let me wish you a Happy First Day Of Spring! It began at 1:48 this morning. Even though this year Spring is going to begin on a cold note with a little snow, I thought I would send some warmer, more spring-like thoughts your way, as we break down the average spring.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

After officially picking up 2.2" at Erie International Airport yesterday, we have become the tenth snowiest winter on record. Here is that top ten list of seasonal snowfalls:

Looking at the numbers, we are less than a half inch away from moving into the number nine spot. With some snow expected in the week ahead, this may not be out of the question.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

While models are still wavering a bit on the storm's track, it is safe to say that our viewing area will see some snow from the next system running through the region.

CLICK TO VIEW GFS SNOW FORECAST
CLICK TO VIEW ETA SNOW FORECAST

The GFS forecast seems to be a little heavy with the snow calling for 2-4" for Erie and Warren Counties, with 4-6" for Crawford County. The ETA leaves Erie County alone, and puts most of the snow in Crawford County (3-6"). Warren County, according to this model, will see 1-3".

The number one rule when using models is to not look at just one model while forecasting. I think, in this case, we are going to split the difference between the two since they closely match-up.

The forecast for tonight and early tomorrow's snow:
For areas from Erie to Edinboro, East to The City of Warren, expect 1-3". The further North you are, the less you can expect as this storm is slipping bye to the South.

From the Erie/Crawford County Line, southward 4-6" could accumulate. The heaviest accumulations appear to be from Southern Crawford County trough Mercer, Venango, Forest, Clarion and Lawrence Counties. In those spots, up to 8" is possible.

Remember to check the weather page on wsee.tv for the latest updates!

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Here are some snow totals from the storm that scraped the area. While no snow developed in the city, inland areas did see snow, like expected.

LINESVILLE 5.5 "
MEADVILLE 5W 5.5"
EDINBORO 0.5"

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

We hope you have a safe and happy Easter!

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

This is the earliest Easter in nearly a century. The last time Easter fell this early was in the year 1913. Some may find it strange considering we are still wearing coats and bundling up as we head out the door each morning.

Cheryl Scott,
WSEE Storm Team

One way to see if warmer or cooler weather is approaching is to look to the jet stream. This is an area of intense winds in the upper elevations of the atmosphere. On the surface (where we are), this translates to the dividing line between warmer and cooler temperatures.

Above, is the forecasted position of the jet stream for Wednesday, March 26th. You can see it runs just to the North of Erie. When the position is this close, you can usually (other things NOT considered) count on temperatures near the average. Which this time of year is 48 degrees. We are forecasting, at the time of this posting, 43 degrees.

On Thursday, the jet stream is expected to push further to the North. This will allow warm air to seep into Erie. Here, the Storm Team is looking for temperatures to get close to 50 degrees, or a little above average.

Now, on Friday, you can see the western portions of the jet stream are forecasted to start dropping a little southward. In cases like this, where the jet stream starts to get wavy (the official term is "meridonal"), you can usually count on cooling temperatures over the course of the day. While the "jet" is sagging to the south, on the surface, we are expecting a cold front to swing through the region. This is how the upper air features translate to what happens on the ground. For Friday, we are looking for early rain showers to change over to snow as our temperatures fall during the day.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

I want to thank Mike and Helen Juliano from Greene Township for sending us this great picture of a bald eagle that was perched on a tree near their home.

Now, we'll blow this picture up as much as we can without it getting too distorted to get a closer look.

If you still can't make out the eagle in the picture, we'll spotlight it for you.

Now, I could not contain myself from giving this eagle a new look!

Now, that is one good lookin' bird!

Ray "Bald Eagle" Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

We could be adding to our accumulations as we move through the next 24 hours. Here is the set-up:

We have a stationary front parked to our south with a colder airmass making an approach from the north. This means that our temperatures are actually going to cool down a bit. This is not the best news for us, as we have an area of low pressure moving along that stationary front. This will spread moisture into our area.

This moisture will be running into the cooler air overhead, meaning we do have the potential of snow to develop tonight. 1-3" is not out of the question. Off to our west, in the Quad Cities area, one of my meteorologist buddies tells me that they have had thundersnow from this same system. This is an indication that some brief periods of heavy snow are a possibility.

If you are out and about tonight, make sure to exercise caution. And, as always, make sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast and radar images at weather.wsee.tv.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Well, we finally put this March in the record books as the snowiest March on Record. So far, at the time of this posting, we have managed to accumulate nearly 34 inches of snow for the month at Erie International Airport. Considering the average March in Erie sees 11.2 inches of snow, this is impressive.

Not only is the month of March in the record books, our seasonal snowfall total is too. After last night's snowfall, we have moved into 9th place for the snowiest season on record with a total, seasonal accumulation of 118.7 inches of snow.

Now, I know there are some reading this blog without a smile on their face, or feeling of accomplishment, so I will toss out some good news to these folks. Next week, it looks like we will see some Spring-like weather in the forecast. You can see that forecast at wsee.tv.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Saturday, with an area of high pressure overhead, we can expect sunshine to return to the area. High pressure is a large area of sinking air. As air sinks, it is compressed. As air compresses, it warms. As air warms, it dries out. As air dries, clouds have a difficulty forming.

With the sunshine, however, the temperatures will remain cool. This, as our "high" will provide northerly winds. On Sunday, our winds become southerly on the back-side of this area of high pressure. Warmer temperatures can be expected, along with the chance of late-day showers as the next storm system makes its approach.

In short, the start of your weekend will be so bright, you'll have to wear shades (like my daughter Elizabeth).

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Coming off of the snowiest March on record, it is now time to put our thoughts into "Spring Mode". What better month to accomplish this than April?

When it comes to temperature in April, at the beginning of the month, the average high is 51 degrees, and the average low is 32. By the end of the month the averages shoot to 61 on the high side, and 43 on the low. The warmest temperature ever recorded for an Erie April is 89, and that was in 1990. The coldest was 7 in 1923. Last year we hit a high temperature for the month of 78 degrees, and a low of 23.

When it comes to precipitation, we see mostly rain during this month, however, we do average some snow. 2.3 inches is the average for the month. The snowiest April on record occured in 1987. That year we picked up 19.3 inches. Last year we had 3.8 inches.

When it comes to the forecast for the upcoming month, plan on slightly above average temperatures with our precipitation hanging right around "normal".

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist