While we will see some rain and snow around the regions through the next few days, the Storm Team is focused on a possible storm brewing for the weekend.
THIS IS THE GFS MODEL OUTPUT FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 15TH. YOU CAN SEE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF ERIE, WITH PRECIPITATION. THE RED AND BLUE LINES ARE LINES OF CONSTANT "THICKNESS". THE THICKNESS OF A PARTICULAR LEVEL GIVES US AN INDICATION AS TO WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO EXPECT, AS THICKNESSS IS A FUNCTION OF HEAT.
THIS IS THE SAME GFS OUTPUT WITH OUR AREA HIGHLIGHTED TO MAKE IT EASIER TO READ.
This is the GFS model output for this Saturday. As you can see, a disturbance is moving its way toward our area. Right now it appears that this storm will move just enough to our south where we will see a mix of rain and snow. This, as we will be close enough to the warm air. You can see the red and blue "dotted" lines. The line with the "540" on it is what we are using to determine the difference between the rain and snow. North of the "534" line is where the precipitation usually falls as just snow.
If this track changes, however, we could be looking a much uglier storm. We'll just have to wait and see. Stay tuned for updates.
Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist