For most of the week, the St. Patrick's Parade in Downtown Erie looked like it was going to be messy. The good news is, now, most of the models are keeping the precipitation down to the south for parade time! We still need to keep a close watch on how this scenario plays out because the precipitation will not be that far to the south. A minor shift in the models could have a big impact on the chances for "natural confetti" during the parade.
GFS: 3/14/2008 0z RUN
MM5: 3/14/2008 0 RUN
NAM: 3/14/2008 0z RUN
NGM: 3/14/2008 0z RUN
Above are four different models for 2pm, Saturday (parade time). They all agree that the precipitaion will stay to our south. It will be cooler, though. You can see the "540 Line" (a blue, "dotted" line on all of the models except the MM5, with the number "540" on it) is down to our south meaning colder air will be over head. We usually use the "540 Line" as the rain/snow line. We are not expecting precipitation, so we will use it today to let us know that the mild temperatures will not be sticking around for the parade.
In short, expect drier, but cooler conditions for the parade. That being said, always check back to WSEE.TV for forecast updates, just in case something should change.
Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist