For this first day of April, A.K.A. "April Fool's Day", it looks like the weather is going to try to play us as fools. Good thing you have the Storm Team ready to foil this evil plan.

Temperatures for Erie, as of 7:44 this morning, were very warm to start us off. This is because we are under the warm sector of the storm. This is the portion between the warm front and cold front, where the winds come out of the south (warm air advection). Along with the warm air, we are seeing moisture pumping into the region as well.

As you can see, however, some much cooler weather is lurking to the west. These temperature contrasts are also helping to drive some shower and thunderstorm activity.The rain, and possible thunderstorms, will be with us for a good portion of the day, and the colder temperatures will move into play as we make our commutes home this evening. So, despite the warm start to the day, we are looking for a cool finish.

In addition to the rain, and the temperature contrasts for the day, it will also be very windy. Some gusts could top 40 miles per hour, thanks to the area of low pressure passing right over the Erie area.

As always, don't forget to log onto WSEE.tv for the latest radar images, and current temperatures!

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

After seeing temperatures in the mid 60's yesterday, it is kind of shocking to step outside this morning. As of 7am, we are 31 degrees cooler than this time yesterday.

We will see kind of a trade off, though. While our temperatures will remain well below the 51 degree average, we will get to see some sunshine. This weekend, our whole forecast will come together, as we are expecting some sunshine and mild temperatures together. You can see the Storm Team 7 day forecast at WSEE.tv.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Despite the chilly start to the day, temperatures should be well on their way into the 50's this afternoon.

Thes warmer temperatures are the result of a warm front that will lift into the region today. With these increasing temperatures, however, will come increasing clouds.

Rain, that is being stirred up by the cold portion of this storm, will start to move in tonight. A rumble or two of thunder is also possible.

Early tomorrow we will see temperatures in the lower 50's, but a cold front will drop these temperatures through the 40's over the afternoon.

Never fear, we will warm it back into the upper 50's on Sunday. You can see the Storm Team 7 Day forecast by heading over to WSEE.TV.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

While we will end the work week on a soggy note, the weather is shaping up for the weekend. Let's walk through this forecast for the weekend in order.

Rain will hang around the region through the day today (Friday). Into the evening hours, here we see 6pm, the showers will start to break up, and continue to do so through the night. Most of the rain should be out of here by Saturday morning, however, a lingering rain drop or two is possible, mainly in the southeastern portions of the viewing area.

By late Saturday morning, any showers should be out of the picture with skies continuing to clear into the afternoon. Temperatures will creep back into the lower 50's, so it will be a bit warmer too.

Sunday is going to be the best looking day of the weekend. Sunny skies will be with us all day, and temperatures are expected to reach the lower 60's. It looks like we will get the sky conditions and the temperatures working together here.

So, the beautiful weekend is the payoff for the dreary end of the work week.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Since the start of our current warm spell, the bay has thawed, and the ice on Lake Erie continues to melt away.

Here is a satellite image of the eastern portions of the lake ice from Sunday, April 6th.

The ice is the areas of "white" in the lake. You can see that there is still some good ice cover to the far eastern sections of the lake.

Out toward Cleveland, the ice is pretty much gone. The area of "white" to the west of Cleveland is a cloud. Sometimes, they get in the way!

The satellite images for this blog posting are provided by NexSat.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Yesterday's 68 degrees was the highest temperature we have seen in quite some time. To be exact, yesterday was the the warmest day since October 22nd! That day we hit 80 degrees.

My family and I went for a walk, and it was quite obvious that everyone is enjoying the warmer temperatures, and sunshine too. It is amazing how alive the area becomes when we emerge from the freezing temperatures and snow.

It looks as the warmer-than-average temperatures will continue for a couple more days, but it will back to being cool as we head into the weekend. You can see the latest Storm Team forecast by logging on to WSEE.tv.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

A cold front moving through the area will be responsible for stirring up some thunderstorms today.

The storms should wrap up later this afternoon, however our temperatures will suffer. Expect them to drop into the 50's this afternoon, with overnight lows tonight in the 30's! Tomorrow should be quite pleasant before another possible round of thunderstorms on Friday.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

It appears as our first round of severe, spring weather could develop tomorrow. Here is the set-up. A very warm and humid airmass will bring temperatures on Friday into the lower 70's. The cold portion of this storm system will have temperatures only in the 40's. This clash could help drive some thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center currently has us in the "Slight Risk" category when it comes to the potential of severe thunderstorms developing. The biggest threats right now are for severe thunderstorms that may produce damaging winds and hail.

According to the SPC's Probabilistic outlook for tomorrow, the best chance of the severe weather will remain in the southern reaches of our viewing area. Usually when you see the "bulls-eyes" that close, you need to account for a margin of error.

Anyway, tomorrow is setting up to be an interesting day. Make sure to keep on top of the latest weather forecast and radar images at WSEE.tv.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Here are the vitals of what was going on at 7:45pm, Thursday, April 10th in Edinboro, when this picture was taken.

Knowing the vitals, we can say that these are Stratocumulus Clouds, which tend to form when warmer air (from the south) moves over colder, moist air (in Edinboro). This warmer air lifts as it travels from South to North (this is called isentropic lift). So, the warmer air arrives first in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

As this occurs, you get the bumpy, or rolling texture to the clouds. When it comes to precipitation with these clouds, usually it will be light, like Thursday night. However, stratocumuli usually are observed before, or after bad weather rolls through the area. In this instance, it is before, as some pretty crummy weather will be with us through the weekend.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Sunday morning, many looked out the window to seen some snow flakes mixing between rain drops. Not the sight we like to see coming off of some warmer weather a few days ago.

Above is an image from Storm Track 4D from 845 Sunday morning. You can see that, even though Erie was looking at a mix of rain and snow (the pink color on the radar), areas to the east were seeing just snow showers (the white on the radar).

The good news is that warmer, and drier weather is on the horizon. Here is a look at the GFSX model for the week ahead:

GFSX MOS (MEX)
KERI GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/13/2008 0000 UTC

SUN 13| MON 14| TUE 15| WED 16| THU 17| FRI 18|
X/N 41| 30 41| 29 51| 37 64| 45 65| 46 62| 45 59|
TMP 37| 33 38| 35 46| 42 55| 51 56| 50 54| 49 52|
DPT 30| 29 25| 24 25| 28 35| 38 43| 41 44| 42 41|
CLD OV| PC CL| CL CL| CL CL| CL CL| PC OV|

Just keep in mind that one of the biggest rules of forecasting is that you do not put your faith in one model, and this is just one model. I am using this just to illustrate the fact that better weather is expected during the week ahead. I highlighted the high and low expected temperatures for the week ahead.

Also, the weather can change a lot during the course of the week ahead, so check back to the Storm Team forecast at WSEE.tv often.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

An interesting thing that occurs near larger lakes is the "lake shadow". This is not really a shadow, rather a lack of clouds near the lake while away from the lake, fair weather clouds develop. You can see this on the two images I provided from yesterday's visible satellite imagery (Just for reference, these are both images of Lake Erie).

When it comes to weather, clouds are created by instability, or rising air. As the sun heats the ground, the air lifts, condensing the moisture and creating clouds. When the air is stable there is a sinking motion that occurs, drying the air out, meaning no clouds.

Since the lake water temperature is still only 40 degrees while inland it was in the mid 40's, we see the more stable (sinking) air located over the lake, and in the immediate vicinity of the lake. This, while our inland conterparts are seeing fair weather clouds develop because of the instability (rising motion).

Now you know why the city is a little sunnier than our inland counterparts this time of year. In the winter, when the lake is warmer than the air (and the winds are calm), we see the reverse... clouds over the lake, while inland locations stay sunnier.

The satellite images for this blog posting were provided by NexSat.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

When it comes to weather forecasting publications, there are two that have been around the longest. First, is the "Original Farmer's Almanac" that has been around since 1792. The second is the "Farmers' Almanac" that has been published since 1818.

While many have their preference as to which of the books to consult (only when they do not have a computer to access wsee.tv), they both have one BIG similarity...

A hole punched in the upper, right corner! Many wonder why it is there, others may not have noticed until now. What is the hole for?

Wonder no more! The hole punched in the corner started off as something functional, then become traditional. Waaaaay back in the good old days, as Joey Stevens may attest (just kidding), the hole was punched in the corner of these publications so they could either hang from a nail or a string in the outhouse (or library depending on the amount of time spent "studying". Ever since, the tradition has been kept.

That is the "hole" truth, and nothing but the truth.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

As the sun continues to shine today, just a quick reminder that you can get a sunburn, even in mid-April. I can personally attest to this.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Early this morning, many were waking up to an earthquake in the Midwest. This happened at 5:37am Eastern (4:37am Central). The epicenter was 38 miles NNW of Evansville, Indiana near the town of Belmont, Illinois.

Here are the stats from the USGS website:

Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time Friday, April 18, 2008 at 09:37:00 UTC
Friday, April 18, 2008 at 04:37:00 AM at epicenter
Location 38.450°N, 87.890°W
Depth 11.6 km (7.2 miles) set by location program
Region ILLINOIS
Distances 7 km (5 miles) NNE (13°) from Bellmont, IL
9 km (6 miles) E (88°) from Bone Gap, IL
11 km (7 miles) N (350°) from Keensburg, IL
41 km (26 miles) SW (232°) from Vincennes, IN
60 km (38 miles) NNW (331°) from Evansville, IN
206 km (128 miles) E (95°) from St. Louis, MO

Earthquake Summary

The following is a release by the United States Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: An earthquake occurred 35 km (20 miles) SW of Vincennes, Indiana and 205 km (125 miles) SW of INDIANAPOLIS, Indiana at 3:36 AM MDT, Apr 18, 2008 (4:36 AM CDT in Illinois). The magnitude and location may be revised when additional data and further analysis results are available.

Felt Reports

Reports of minor structural damage in West Salem, Illinois and Louisville, Kentucky. Felt over a wide area of the central United States with felt reports as far west as Kansas, as far north as the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and as far south as Georgia.

Tectonic Summary

EARTHQUAKES IN THE ILLINOIS BASIN - OZARK DOME REGION
This large region borders the much more seismically active New Madrid seismic zone on the seismic zone's north and west. The Illinois basin - Ozark dome region covers parts of Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, and Arkansas and stretches from Indianapolis and St. Louis to Memphis. Moderately frequent earthquakes occur at irregular intervals throughout the region. The largest historical earthquake in the region (magnitude 5.4) damaged southern Illinois in 1968. Moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the region each decade or two, and smaller earthquakes are felt about once or twice a year. In addition, geologists have found evidence of eight or more prehistoric earthquakes over the last 25,000 years that were much larger than any observed historically in the region.

Earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S., although less frequent than in the western U.S., are typically felt over a much broader region. East of the Rockies, an earthquake can be felt over an area as much as ten times larger than a similar magnitude earthquake on the west coast. A magnitude 4.0 eastern U.S. earthquake typically can be felt at many places as far as 100 km (60 mi) from where it occurred, and it infrequently causes damage near its source. A magnitude 5.5 eastern U.S. earthquake usually can be felt as far as 500 km (300 mi) from where it occurred, and sometimes causes damage as far away as 40 km (25 mi).

FAULTS
Earthquakes everywhere occur on faults within bedrock, usually miles deep. Most bedrock in the Illinois basin – Ozark dome region was formed as several generations of mountains rose and were eroded down again over the last billion or so years.

At well-studied plate boundaries like the San Andreas fault system in California, often scientists can determine the name of the specific fault that is responsible for an earthquake. In contrast, east of the Rocky Mountains this is rarely the case. The Illinois basin - Ozark dome region is far from the nearest plate boundaries, which are in the center of the Atlantic Ocean, in the Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of California. The region is laced with known faults but numerous smaller or deeply buried faults remain undetected. Even the known faults are poorly located at earthquake depths. Accordingly, few earthquakes in the region can be linked to named faults. It is difficult to determine if a known fault is still active and could slip and cause an earthquake. As in most other areas east of the Rockies, the best guide to earthquake hazards in the Illinois basin – Ozark dome region is the earthquakes themselves.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

This past weekend is one for the record books. Saturday (April 19th), Erie hit 84 degrees, breaking the old record of 83. That record was set in 1941.

Considering the average high temperature for April 19th is 57, it is easy to tell that we were enjoying some VERY warm conditions. Actually, the warmest since October 5th, when we hit 87!

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Today is Earth Day, a day to keep the environment, and what you can do to help it in mind. Here is a little history lesson on this tradition from the EPA website.

On April 22, 1970, 20 million people across America celebrated the first Earth Day. It was a time when cities were buried under their own smog and polluted rivers caught fire. Now Earth Day is celebrated annually around the globe. Through the combined efforts of the U.S. government, grassroots organizations, and citizens like you, what started as a day of national environmental recognition has evolved into a world-wide campaign to protect our global environment.

Now, with recycling and energy efficiency being more cost effective than ever, it is not too difficult to be a good steward to the planet on which we live.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

With temperatures above average for a full straight week, and six of the last seven days hitting 70 degrees or better, it is starting to look like spring all around the region. The daffodils are springing up out of the ground, and the trees are starting to show their first leaves.

At the "Petelin Ranch", our weeping cherry tree is in full bloom.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

While we did manage to pick up .06" of rain yesterday with the weak cold front that breezed through the area, it was not enough to put a dent in the rain deficit that we have been buiding during the month.

As of yesterday, we are still 1.08 inches of rain behind for the month. For those who want to see some precipitaiton, we have some good news. Many of the next 7 days will have, at the very least, a chance of rain. You can see the forecast by logging on to WSEE.tv.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

The Spring showers that have been neglecting the region are finally on the way. With them, we also have the potential for thunderstorms.

Warmer air lifting into the region, today, will bring areas of rain, and possible thunderstorms to the area. In between these events, however, we will see occasional breaks for sunshine. This sunshine could create more instability, which in turn could help more storms to develop this afternoon.

Saturday, the cold portion of this disturbance will make its approach on the area. As this happens, more thunderstorms will develop. Some of the rain associated with these storms may be heavy too! Ahead of the cold front we can expect mild temperatures. On the back side of it, we will see those temperatures fall into the 50's!

Once that cold front swings through the region, we will see a clearing trend. By Sunday, mostly sunny skies will dominate the area, and the temperatures should remain rather comfortable. Don't get too used to it, though. Rain and snow are both possible as we end April and Begin May. You can see the Storm Team forecast at WSEE.tv.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

While rain and fog may not be the ideal way to start the work week off, keep in mind that we have been running a little dry through much of the month. An inch and a half below average, to be exact.

Also, it will be much cooler than the last couple of weeks. While our temperatures for the next couple of days will run between 10 to 15 degrees below average, it will feel even worse because the last two weeks, we have spent most of the time in temperature 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Coming off of an impressive streak of warm weather, it is hard to believe that we may see some areas of patchy frost tonight. With this being the case, I just wanted to pass along a little inside information when it comes to "official temperatures" and the ability for frost to occur.

You have to keep in mind that the National Weather Service measures the air temperature five feet off of the ground. When you have clear skies, cold temperatures, and calm conditions, the temperature five feet off of the ground can be warmer than temperatures on the ground, sometimes by a few degrees.

That being said, even though the official temperature may read 36 degrees, the temperature may be freezing (32 F) a few feet below the thermometer. Here is a litte information from the National Weather Service Website:

we must add that frost can occur any time national weather service temperatures of 36 degrees or less are recorded. the reason for this apparent anomaly is that official temperature readings are taken at an elevation of five feet above ground... but the temperature at ground level may be colder. on typical spring nights when frost occurs... the temperature at the five foot level may read 36 degrees while the temperature at ground level is actually the 32 degrees needed to form frost.

Since the lake temperature is 48 degrees, inland locations will have a better shot at seeing frost develop. Remember you can get the most up to date temperatures at WSEE.tv.

For tips on protecting your plants from being damaged by a frost, you can find some good information at the website I linked by CLICKING HERE.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

CLIMATE GRAPH OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL COURTESTY OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

Coming off of a warm and dry April, it is now time to look forward to May, the month where we really begin to heat things up!

When it comes to temperature in may, at the beginning of the month, the average high is 63 degrees, and the average low is 43. By the end of the month the averages shoot to 72 on the high side, and 53 on the low. The warmest temperature ever recorded for an Erie May is 90 (this happened four times: 1911, 1944, 1991, 1996). The coldest was 7 in 1923. Last year our highest temperature for the month was 86 degrees, and the lowest was 37.

When it comes to precipitation, we see mostly rain during this month, however, May averages a trace of snow. The snowiest May on record occured in 1923. That year we picked up 1.7 inches. Last year we had none. Total precipitation (rain and "melted snow" together) averages 3.34 inches for the month.

This May, plan on average temperatures with our precipitation hanging right around "normal", if not a little above.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist