The Fifth Quartertag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl/412009-03-16T02:17:28ZNews and discussion on the NFLMovable Type 3.35Fifth Quarter Blog has movedtag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.70442009-03-16T02:15:29Z2009-03-16T02:17:28ZThe Fifth Quarter blog has moved. Please bookmark the new link: The Fifth Quarter. -- John Dudley...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
The Fifth Quarter.
-- John Dudley]]>
As usual, Steelers bottled up during free agencytag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.69542009-03-06T01:10:27Z2009-03-06T01:15:33ZYou know free agency is in full bloom when the biggest football related announcement to come out of Pittsburgh in early March is that Heinz is issuing a Super Bowl-themed ketchup six-pack. The Steelers will be sitting out the Terrell Owens derby, thank you very much, and probably won't get...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
Super Bowl-themed ketchup six-pack.
The Steelers will be sitting out the Terrell Owens derby, thank you very much, and probably won't get involved in the bidding for any other big-name free agents. But don't be surprised if they make a late move for an offensive lineman or a wide receiver.
In the meantime, take advantage of the warm weather, fire up your grill and cook something that will help you use up all that ketchup.
-- John Dudley]]>
Royal is no Winslow, and that's OKtag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.69532009-03-06T01:03:36Z2009-03-06T01:09:30ZThe Browns have signed tight end Robert Royal, and trust me, as someone who has watched plenty of Bills games over the past couple of years, it's because of his blocking. As a receiver Royal is the anti-Kellen Winslow, neither fast nor exceptionally sure-handed. This is good news for the...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
The Browns have signed tight end Robert Royal, and trust me, as someone who has watched plenty of Bills games over the past couple of years, it's because of his blocking.
As a receiver Royal is the anti-Kellen Winslow, neither fast nor exceptionally sure-handed. This is good news for the Browns' running game, and good news for Steve Heiden, who won't have to rush his return from knee surgery.
-- John Dudley
Don't expect T.O. to play for, or haunt, Steelers, Browns or Billstag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.69522009-03-06T00:57:52Z2009-03-06T01:02:32ZTerrell Owens wore out his welcome with another team, so the Cowboys released him today into the wild of NFL free agency. There's virtually no chance Owens would latch on with the Bills, Browns or Steelers, and if you have a week I'll explain all the reasons why. There also...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
Terrell Owens wore out his welcome with another team, so the Cowboys released him today into the wild of NFL free agency.
There's virtually no chance Owens would latch on with the Bills, Browns or Steelers, and if you have a week I'll explain all the reasons why.
There also appears to be little chance he will show up on a team in either the AFC North or the AFC East, meaning the NFL's most troubled, and perhaps most gifted, receiver won't become a twice-a-season thorn in the side of any of the three area teams.
Instead it appears Owens is most likely headed to bizzaro world -- a.ka. Oakland -- or perhaps the Washington Redskins or TennesseeTitans, if you buy the Kool-Aid former Chiefs coach Herm Edwards was pouring on ESPN today. (And since when did Herm Edwards become an expert on personnel moves, anyway.)
-- John Dudley
Browns reportedly hosting Jabari Greertag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.69122009-03-03T22:46:48Z2009-03-03T22:53:26ZIt sounds like the Browns are interested in signing free agent cornerback Jabari Greer, who made 23 starts with the Bills the past two seasons. Greer probably will cost whatever team signs him as much as $7 million or $8 million per year, a price set earlier in free agency...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
It sounds like the Browns are interested in signing free agent cornerback Jabari Greer, who made 23 starts with the Bills the past two seasons.
Greer probably will cost whatever team signs him as much as $7 million or $8 million per year, a price set earlier in free agency by comparable CB Kelvin Hayden, who stayed with the Colts.
Greer strikes me as a young, improving corners who is a little bit of a tough read right now. He has some big-play ability. He returned both of his interceptions for touchdowns last season.
But it's hard to say just how good he will be playing in a defense that doesn't include veteran Terrance McGee and Leodis McKelvin, who emerged as a very good young cover guy last season.
He could be just the player the Browns need to help bring along young corners Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald, who got routinely abused last season. Or he could be a guy who isn't quite as good as he looks in a relatively thin market for corners.
-- John Dudley
As rumors go, Edwards to the Giants makes more sense than Quinn and Rogers to Denvertag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.69082009-03-03T17:05:29Z2009-03-03T17:15:09ZReports out of Cleveland have the Browns considering a couple of possible trades. One deal would send Brady Quinn and Shaun Rogers to Denver for Jay Cutler and a third-round draft choice. Another would have the Browns swapping receiver Braylon Edwards for New York Giants pass rusher Mathias Kiwanuka. The...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
Reports out of Cleveland have the Browns considering a couple of possible trades.
One deal would send Brady Quinn and Shaun Rogers to Denver for Jay Cutler and a third-round draft choice.
Another would have the Browns swapping receiver Braylon Edwards for New York Giants pass rusher Mathias Kiwanuka.
The first makes no sense. Rogers was the Browns' best defensive player -- maybe their best overall player -- last season, and there is no one currently on the roster capable of adequately filling his role. Quinn for Cutler makes sense only as far as experience goes.
Quinn remains largely an unknown quantity after his brief turn as the starter last year. He could be great, He could be average. He could be awful. These things have a way of sorting themselves out once a player gets a full season or so on the field, and that's especially true of Quinn's position. Quarterbacks need to be in game situations, under fire, working against the blitz or against the clock, to show their true competitiveness. Those things really can't be simulated in practice.
Cutler is a known quantity. He's talented, erratic and he has a big mouth. Before his career barely got underway in Denver he had already announced to anyone who would listen that he possesses arm strength superior to that of one John Elway.
So a Quinn and Rogers for Cutler and a pick swap is exactly the sort of disastrous move that has the Browns in their current tailspin, which is why it should scare fans to death.
On to rumor No. 2: Kiwanuka is just the sort of young (25), talented (eight sacks, two forced fumbles in 2008) playmaker the Browns lack on defense.
The problem is, giving up Edwards, malcontent that he is, would leave them with exactly zero playmakers on offense. It could be a tradeoff the Browns are willing to make, especially if they think they have a shot at Texas Tech receiver Michael Crabtree on draft day.
-- John Dudley
Washington was fine, but Steelers will be fine without himtag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.69072009-03-03T16:52:26Z2009-03-03T17:00:45ZIf I'm the Steelers, I'm not terribly concerned with losing Nate Washington. Yes, Nate Washington is capable of being a big-play receiver. He had at least one reception of at least 48 yards in four straight games last season. Yes, Washington is a great story, making the Steelers as a...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
If I'm the Steelers, I'm not terribly concerned with losing Nate Washington.
Yes, Nate Washington is capable of being a big-play receiver. He had at least one reception of at least 48 yards in four straight games last season.
Yes, Washington is a great story, making the Steelers as a longshot after a record-setting career at Division II Tiffin. (Yes, he played against Gannon.)
Yes, Washington is a stand-up guy in the locker room, the sort of player the Rooney family covets.
But Washington isn't worth the $27 million over six years he will receiver from the Tennessee Titans -- not to the Steelers, not in this offense.
There was some hand-wringing a few years ago when Antwan Randle-El, prince of trickery, departed for a big contract in Washington. But Randle-El hasn't exactly become an elite receiver. And the Steelers haven't exactly struggled with him,
Washington, like Randle-El, is a replaceable part. Someone, perhaps rookie Limas Sweed, who showed some late-season promise amid bouts with cluelessness, will step in and fill his role.
And Sweed -- or anyone else who inherits Washington's snaps -- won't come with the price tag Washington commanded (his deal with the Titans includes a $9 million guarantee) when he hit free agency.
-- John Dudley
End of an ownership era looms in Pittsburghtag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.68222009-02-23T14:07:20Z2009-02-23T15:01:34ZSteelers -- The Steelers are entering their final five weeks under the ownership structure in place since Art Rooney controlled the team. -- The Super Bowl loss to the Steelers still keeps Arizona Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt awake nights. -- It doesn't seem like a priority given their needs on...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
Steelers
-- The Steelers are entering their final five weeks under the ownership structure in place since Art Rooney controlled the team.
-- The Super Bowl loss to the Steelers still keeps Arizona Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt awake nights.
-- It doesn't seem like a priority given their needs on both lines, but the Steelers are floating the idea of drafting a cornerback. Also, Kevin Colbert says the Steelers won't make a need-based pick in a draft relatively light on offensive tackles.
-- Byron Leftwich isn't ruling out a return as Ben Roethlisberger's backup QB. Also, the Steelers are facing a huge payout to sign James Harrison to a contract extension.
-- WR Nate Washington's days with the Steelers appear to be numbered.
Browns
-- Ohio State RB Chris "Beanie" Wells, an Akron native, says it would be "blessed" to play for the Browns.
-- Bill Belichick reveals he nearly fired George Kokinis during Kokinis' first stint with the Browns. (2nd item)
-- Safety Sean Jones won't get the Browns' franchise tag, meaning he could be on his way out when free agency opens Friday.
-- Although they need LBs, the Browns are closely tracking tackles Jason Smith and Andre Smith as potential bookends to pair with two-time Pro Bowl LT Joe Thomas.
Bills
-- Not surprisingly, the Bills are thought to be looking closely at defensive ends, including Penn State's Aaron Maybin, with the 11th pick overall.
-- Tom Modrak believes the Bills have the nucleus of a winning team, saying "in my mind we are better than we've shown."
-- Offensive coordinator Turk Schonert is enthusiastic about QB Trent Edwards' progress.
-- LB Angelo Crowell and CB Jabari Greer probably won't be back with the Bills next season.
-- John Dudley]]>
Starks gets the Steelers' franchise tagtag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.67722009-02-20T13:47:23Z2009-02-20T14:30:32ZSteelers -- Tackle Max Starks receives the franchise tag and a guaranteed 2009 salary of $8.4 million. This could mean Marvel Smith is on his way out. -- Running back Rashard Mendenhall's shoulder rehab is ahead of schedule. Also, Santonio Holmes received a $10,000 fine for his Super Bowl touchdown...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
Steelers
-- Tackle Max Starks receives the franchise tag and a guaranteed 2009 salary of $8.4 million. This could mean Marvel Smith is on his way out.
-- Running back Rashard Mendenhall's shoulder rehab is ahead of schedule. Also, Santonio Holmes received a $10,000 fine for his Super Bowl touchdown celebration.
-- The Steelers are among teams that seem to be interested in drafting Penn State center A.Q. Shipley.
Browns
-- The Browns appear set to name Missouri defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus their new linebackers coach.
-- The Detroit Lions, who might take Matthew Stafford No. 1 overall, could be a trading partner for Derek Anderson.
-- New Lions coach Jim Schwatrz cut his NFL teeth at the bottom of the Browns' coaching food chain.
Bills
-- At the NFL combine, Bills coach Dick Jauron says winning will take care of everything in Buffalo.
-- Marshawn Lynch is losing the benefit of the doubt, Buffalo News columnist Jerry Sullivan writes.
-- Meanwhile, Lynch was charged Thursday with three misdemeanors in connection with his gun-related arrest in California.
-- Buddy Nix has returned to the Bills' fold as a scout.
-- John Dudley]]>
Bills, Browns, Steelers turn focus to combinetag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.67512009-02-19T12:32:17Z2009-02-19T13:14:49ZThe NFL combine is going on in Indianapolis, officially opening the gates to another season of offseason movement. Steelers -- Moving up from the last spot in the draft, as the Steelers did after their Super Bowl XL win to take Santonio Holmes, is a possibility again this year. --...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
is going on in Indianapolis, officially opening the gates to another season of offseason movement.
Steelers
-- Moving up from the last spot in the draft, as the Steelers did after their Super Bowl XL win to take Santonio Holmes, is a possibility again this year.
-- The Steelers have a lot of decisions to make concerning their offensive line before free agency opens Feb. 27.]]>
the Steelers are determined to work out a contract extension with James Harrison that will include a huge raise over the $1.2 million he made in 2008.
-- Santonio Holmes' Super Bowl gloves brought a king's ransom at auction. No, Ken Whisenhunt was not the high bidder.
-- Ben Roethlisberger might be a drama queen, but he's Pittsburgh's drama queen.
-- Steelers director of football operations Kevin Colbert prefers a low-key approach.
Browns
-- The Browns plan to press the flesh often as they evaluate prospects at this year's scouting combine.
-- A pass rusher -- perhaps Wake Forest's Aaron Curry -- might top the Browns' wish list this week as they kick the tires on draft prospects in Indianapolis.
-- New general manager George Kokinis says he and new coach Eric Mangini are up to speed as the combine and free agency approach.
-- Luckily for the Browns, this draft is exceptionally deep at their position of greatest need -- rush outside linebacker.
-- Lately the Browns have gotten away from drafting Ohio State players, a strategy that once served them well.
Bills
-- Marshawn Lynch had marijuana and a gun in his car when police stopped him in California.
-- The Bills shored up some depth at linebacker by re-signing John DiGiorgio.
-- They also will keep backup receiver Justin Jenkins around.
-- Despite their specific needs, the Bills will go into this week's draft combine with an open mind.
-- The good news is the Bills have about $24 million in cap space to upgrade their roster this offseason.
-- John Dudley]]>
Goodell needs a reality checktag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.66902009-02-14T15:55:05Z2009-02-14T16:04:28ZI just finished reading a report on The Sporting News Today that says NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will accept a salary freeze in 2009. The commissioner also agreed to a pay cut for fiscal 2008, which ends May 31. Goodell earns $11 million. The NFL recently announced it would lay...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
I just finished reading a report on The Sporting News Today that says NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will accept a salary freeze in 2009. The commissioner also agreed to a pay cut for fiscal 2008, which ends May 31.
Goodell earns $11 million. The NFL recently announced it would lay off 1,100 employees at its New York headquarters.
I wasn't a math major, and I'm no privy to NFL payroll figures, but let's suppose a lot of those 1,100 people who will lose their jobs make around $50,000 per year, since it's unlikely any high-ranking league officials are getting axed.
And let's suppose that instead nobly agreeing to having his $11 million salary frozen in 2009, Goodell agreed to be paid, say, $7 million, freeing up $4 million that theoretically could be used to pay the salaries of 80 or so employees scheduled to be laid off.
I know that would call for some huge personal sacrifices for Goodell, who might even have to fly commercial once in a while.
But I suspect even the commish could find a way to scratch out a living on 7 mil a year, especially if it meant keeping some other people off the dole.
-- John Dudley
Hide the women and children, and not just because Tony Siragusa is talking againtag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.66382009-02-11T13:31:14Z2009-02-11T13:45:58ZApparently it's not safe to let the kids watch the NFL on TV, anymore. According to a release that showed up in the e-mail inboxes of many newspaper types this week, young viewers are exposed to far too much unseemly content while watching the grand old, professional game of football:...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
Dallas Cowboys.
The full report from Common Sense Media is here. Let it suffice to say that watching ads during a football game is probably no more harmful than half an hour on YouTube. Or half an hour in a fifth-grade lunchroom.
-- John Dudley
]]>
If you still haven't gotten your Steelers fix...tag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.66092009-02-09T18:27:16Z2009-02-09T18:30:51ZFor those who can't get enough of the Steelers' Super Bowl XLIII victory, this site has an amazing collection of photos from before, during and after the game. -- John Dudley...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
this site has an amazing collection of photos from before, during and after the game.
-- John Dudley]]>
This year's free agency class stocked with big namestag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.66082009-02-09T18:02:16Z2009-02-09T18:27:09ZFree agency begins Feb. 27, and some are calling this one of the deepest free-agent classes in years. The list of big names includes Tennessee defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, Carolina defensive end Julius Peppers, Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis, Philadelphia safety Brian Dawkins, Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs, Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner,...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
complete list organized by team and position.
Don't expect the Steelers to be major players in free agency, They never are.
But the Browns (cornerback, linebacker) and Bills (center, defensive end) will be active.
Here are my picks for the top five free agents and where I think they might land:
1. Haynesworth: Maybe the best player on the market given his age and the scarcity of big run-stoppers in any free agent class. Likely destination: Detroit, where former Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is now the head coach.
2. Asomugha: One of the most underrated corners in football because he plays in Oakland, Asomugha could wind up in Dallas, New England, Detroit, Kansas City or with either the Jets or Giants, providing the Raiders don't apply the franchise tag. Likely destination: Dallas, as a more talented, more reliable replacement for Pacman Jones.
3. Gross: Top-end left tackles seldom hit the free-agent market, and when they do they attract plenty of attention. Carolina probably will have to choose between using the franchise tag on Gross or Peppers, with the other player likely to walk. Expect Gross to stay in Carolina, where he would cost the Panthers $8.45 million next season. Likely destination: Remains in Carolina.
4. Peppers: Peppers already has said he wants out, so if Gross gets the franchise designation the Panthers could lose their best pass rusher, who posted 14 1/2 sacks this season. Expect a long line of teams to make offers for Peppers, including, potentially, the Browns and Bills. Likely destination: Cleveland, where Peppers could become a monster in the 3-4.
5. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati: You can't blame Houshmandzadeh for wanting out of the mess in Cincinnati, and he will be an intriguing talent to teams that wonder how good he could become in an environment without the Bengals' dysfunction. Likely destination: Philadelphia, where the Eagles finally get Donovan McNabb the top-tier receiver he has lacked since Terrell Owens left.
-- John Dudley]]>
How my preseason predictions fared, or 'Ouch,' for shorttag:www.goerie.thinkhost.com,2009:/mt/nfl//41.65732009-02-06T03:28:01Z2009-02-06T04:14:21ZIt all seemed so simple back in late August, when I wrote a column picking the Jacksonville Jaguars and their stout defense over the Dallas Cowboys and their explosive offense in Super Bowl XLIII. Hah! Neither team made the playoffs. Joke's on me. That seems to be the trend as...Adminhttp://www.goerie.com/
It all seemed so simple back in late August, when I wrote a column picking the Jacksonville Jaguars and their stout defense over the Dallas Cowboys and their explosive offense in Super Bowl XLIII. Hah! Neither team made the playoffs. Joke's on me. That seems to be the trend as I review a column's worth of preseason NFL predictions:
Prediction: "In the AFC East, look for the Patriots to roll, but not like last year. Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Co. will finish 13-3 but fall well short of 2007's historic regular-season numbers. Meanwhile, led by a resurgent defense the Bills will finish 9-7 and narrowly miss a wild-card berth."
Reality: Tom Brady went down in Week 1, so I'll lean hard on that as my excuse for missing on the Patriots. For awhile I actually thought I had underestimated the Bills. But then the varsity portion of their schedule kicked in and the next thing you knew the Bills were careening and looking for reasons to explain why they weren't planning to fire Dick Jauron.
Prediction: "The Steelers will lose their hold on what will turn out to be a mediocre AFC North. Along with the Browns, they will finish 9-7 but will lose the division tiebreaker. They will, however, claim the AFC's sixth seed by winning a complicated four-way tiebreaker with the Jets, Bills and Titans."
Reality: Uh, yeah. Right on the money with that one. As we all now know, the Steelers were their usual selves, as were the Browns, and the season ended with little reason to suspect that's going to change until Randy Lerner learns to love American-style football as much as Dan Rooney does.
Prediction: "The Jaguars will finish 12-4 and overtake the Colts in the AFC South with a team reminiscent of the 2005 Steelers and built on defense and a two-pronged running game. The Colts will end up 11-5 and claim a wild-card spot."
Reality: Things fell apart for the Jaguars early on when they lost three-fifths of their starting offensive line. Quarterback David Garrard couldn't move the offense efficiently enough to hold onto the ball, and a pretty good defense wore out. Meanwhile, the Colts sandbagged everyone with a 3-4 start, then won nine in a row to claim a wild-card spot, then promptly went belly up in San Diego. Oh, and count me among the 34,546,987 people who didn't envision Tennessee going 13-3.
Prediction: "Out west, the Chargers will coast to the division title with an 11-5 record, four games ahead of the Broncos, who will actually be competitive but suffer from a rough schedule."
Reality: OK. The Chargers won the division, but there was no coasting involved. More like scratching and clawing to stay above .500, which San Diego managed to do by pounding the Broncos in Week 17. Denver's collapse cost coach Mike Shanahan his job, but Norv Turner will be back to try to extend San Diego's streak of playoff disappointments.
Prediction: "The AFC seeds will go: 1. Patriots, 2. Jaguars, 3. Chargers, 4. Browns, 5. Colts, 6. Steelers."
Reality: Not quite. It went: 1. Tennessee, 2. Pittsburgh, 3. Miami, 4. San Diego, 5. Indianapolis, 6. Baltimore.
Prediction: "The NFC East will belong to the Cowboys, who will go 12-4 and finish two games ahead of the Eagles, who will still nail down a playoff spot. The Giants will slump to 9-7 on the heels of their Super Bowl win."
Reality: There was no slumping by the Giants, at least in the regular season. But the Cowboys imploded under Jerry Jones' heavy hand and some critical injuries. But of all my missed predictions, I must say that one stung the least. The Eagles, meanwhile, used a witch's brew of good fortune and momentum to sneak into the playoffs in the final hours of the final weekend.
Prediction: "The Vikings will win the NFC North largely by default with a 10-6 mark, four games ahead of the second-place Packers."
Reality: Probably my most solid job of picking, as the Vikings went 10-6 and the Packers finished 6-10. I missed on the Bears, who finished 9-7 and teased their fans for most of the season before pulling what's become their customary belly flop.
Prediction: "The NFC South will produce a pair of playoff qualifiers in the Saints, who will finish 11-5, and the Bucs, who will go 10-6 and edge the Panthers by a game in one of the league's most competitive divisions."
Reality: The Saints didn't have enough defense and the Bucs didn't have enough offense to fulfill my predictions. Together, they would be unstoppable. Instead, Carolina played fairly consistently all season, just well enough to earn a first-round bye and raise expectations for an epic divisional-round collapse against Arizona. Surprising Arizona pulled off the NFC's best turnaround, but I don't know of anyone who saw that coming.
Prediction: "The Seahawks will claim the West title with a 10-6 mark despite predictions of a collapse this season."
Reality: Turns out there was no happy ending for Mike Holmgren, but Ken Whisenhunt engineered a remarkable story in Arizona, where the Cardinals eeked out a division title and turned into Don Coryell's Chargers in the NFC playoffs.
Prediction: "The NFC seeds will go: 1. Cowboys, 2. Saints, 3. Seahawks, 4. Vikings, 5. Eagles, 6. Bucs."
Reality: Actually, it went: 1. Giants, 2. Panthers, 3. Vikings, 4. Cardinals, 5. Falcons, 6. Eagles
Prediction: "In the wild-card round, the Chargers and LaDainian Tomlinson will overrun the Steelers' aging defensive line, the Colts will out-gun the Browns, the Bucs will smother the Seahawks, and the Eagles will contain Adrian Peterson long enough to get past the Vikings.
In one of the best games of the season, the Colts will take out the top-seeded Patriots in the AFC divisional round, with the Jags beating the Chargers. In the NFC, the Saints and Cowboys will advance to the title game.
An all-AFC South championship matchup will send Jacksonville to its first Super Bowl berth, while the Cowboys will have too much Tony Romo and T.O. for the Saints.
Super Bowl XLIII is decided by defense, and Jacksonville's is better than Dallas', so the Jags will deliver Jack Del Rio a Lombardi Trophy."
Reality: Steelers over Cardinals. Spare me the pain of explaining the rest.
Other predictions:
-- MVP: Tony Romo, Cowboys.
Reality: Peyton Manning, Colts. Richly deserved, although as I wrote in this column, this might have been the year to go a little nuts and give the award to James Harrison, the best player on the league's best defense.
-- Super Bowl XLIII MVP: David Garrard, Jaguars.
Reality: Santonio Holmes, Steelers. It's very difficult to be named Super Bowl MVP when your team finishes 5-11, as Garrard's did.
-- Offensive player of the year: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers.
Reality: Drew Brees, Saints. Brees came within a dropped pass of breaking Dan Marino's single-season passing yards record. I guess that qualifies.
-- Defensive player of the year: Demarcus Ware, Cowboys.
Reality: James Harrison, Steelers. You couldn't go wrong with either guy. Ware did lead the league with 20 sacks, but the Cowboys' mediocrity -- and Harrison's seven forced fumbles -- hurt his chances.
-- Offensive rookie of the year: Matt Ryan, Falcons.
Reality: Ryan.
-- Defensive rookie of the year: Derrick Harvey, Jaguars.
Reality: Jerod Mayo, Patriots. Harvey started slowly and finished with only 3 1/2 sacks for a generally disappointing Jags defense. Mayo, meanwhile, was a tackling machine and finished the season with 100 stops, including a 20-tackle game against the Jets.
-- Comeback player of the year: Drew Brees, Saints.
Reality: Chad Pennington, Dolphins. Brees was tremendous, but Pennington rose from the scrap heap in New York to lead the Dolphins to a division title, throwing for 3,653 yards and 19 TDs.
-- Coach of the year: Jack Del Rio, Jaguars.
Reality: Mike Smith, Falcons. Mike Tomlin would have been an equally appropriate pick, but Smith dealt with much more turmoil in taking over the Falcons and won only one fewer game than Tomlin, albeit against an easier schedule.
-- Executive of the year: Phil Savage, Browns.
Reality: Thomas Dimitroff, Falcons. Savage got fired for the Browns' backslide, but Dimitroff proved that a few smart moves -- including acquiring Michael Turner and drafting Matt Ryan -- and a steady hand can do wonders.
In summary, reality bites.
-- John Dudley]]>