Thunderstorms will develop today, as we are currently in the midst of a warmer, more humid airmass. A cold front moving in from the west will trigger these thunderstorms.

While nothing is expected to become severe, these storms may pack some heavy periods of rain. The soggy weather, and eventually cooler temperatures will stick with us through a good portion of next week.

Make sure to check Storm Track 4D before venturing out today at WSEE.tv. There, you can also sign up for the Storm Team's severe weather alerts. Those are located on the right side of the screen.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Okay, my title is a little dramatic, but I am a little excited. After nearly an inch of rain over the weekend, my grass is starting to grow. You have to realize that I, in no way, have a green thumb. After failing miserably last year with trying to get new grass to grow, I was able to pull it off, at least start to pull it off, this year.

The rain even convinced my rhododendron to bloom. Heading into the weekend, it was budding, but now is enjoying the spring weather.

The weeping Japaneses maple in my front yard has even sprouted its leaves. That began before the weekend started.

Now the big questions is, can I keep them alive for through summer? I will let you know.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

The "weather wall", "chroma key", or "green (blue) screeen" makes us look like giants in respect to the maps that are projected behind us. Even the chroma key, with our Live Eye behind us can make the Storm Team look like the "Stay Puft" marshmallow man, or Godzilla, as we look really big compared to the buildings in Downtown Erie. Maybe I will do my King Kong impression (again), and climb the Renaissance Building!

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Coming off of a warm and dry April, it is now time to look forward to May, the month where we really begin to heat things up!

When it comes to temperature in may, at the beginning of the month, the average high is 63 degrees, and the average low is 43. By the end of the month the averages shoot to 72 on the high side, and 53 on the low. The warmest temperature ever recorded for an Erie May is 90 (this happened four times: 1911, 1944, 1991, 1996). The coldest was 7 in 1923. Last year our highest temperature for the month was 86 degrees, and the lowest was 37.

When it comes to precipitation, we see mostly rain during this month, however, May averages a trace of snow. The snowiest May on record occured in 1923. That year we picked up 1.7 inches. Last year we had none. Total precipitation (rain and "melted snow" together) averages 3.34 inches for the month.

This May, plan on average temperatures with our precipitation hanging right around "normal", if not a little above.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

You have to keep in mind that the National Weather Service measures the air temperature five feet off of the ground. When you have clear skies, cold temperatures, and calm conditions, the temperature five feet off of the ground can be warmer than temperatures on the ground, sometimes by a few degrees.

That being said, even though the official temperature may read 36 degrees, the temperature may be freezing (32 F) a few feet below the thermometer. Here is a litte information from the National Weather Service Website:

we must add that frost can occur any time national weather service temperatures of 36 degrees or less are recorded. the reason for this apparent anomaly is that official temperature readings are taken at an elevation of five feet above ground... but the temperature at ground level may be colder. on typical spring nights when frost occurs... the temperature at the five foot level may read 36 degrees while the temperature at ground level is actually the 32 degrees needed to form frost.

Since the lake temperature is 48 degrees, inland locations will have a better shot at seeing frost develop. Remember you can get the most up to date temperatures at WSEE.tv.

For tips on protecting your plants from being damaged by a frost, you can find some good information at the website I linked by CLICKING HERE.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

While rain and fog may not be the ideal way to start the work week off, keep in mind that we have been running a little dry through much of the month. An inch and a half below average, to be exact.

Also, it will be much cooler than the last couple of weeks. While our temperatures for the next couple of days will run between 10 to 15 degrees below average, it will feel even worse because the last two weeks, we have spent most of the time in temperature 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Warmer air lifting into the region, today, will bring areas of rain, and possible thunderstorms to the area. In between these events, however, we will see occasional breaks for sunshine. This sunshine could create more instability, which in turn could help more storms to develop this afternoon.

Saturday, the cold portion of this disturbance will make its approach on the area. As this happens, more thunderstorms will develop. Some of the rain associated with these storms may be heavy too! Ahead of the cold front we can expect mild temperatures. On the back side of it, we will see those temperatures fall into the 50's!

Once that cold front swings through the region, we will see a clearing trend. By Sunday, mostly sunny skies will dominate the area, and the temperatures should remain rather comfortable. Don't get too used to it, though. Rain and snow are both possible as we end April and Begin May. You can see the Storm Team forecast at WSEE.tv.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

As of yesterday, we are still 1.08 inches of rain behind for the month. For those who want to see some precipitaiton, we have some good news. Many of the next 7 days will have, at the very least, a chance of rain. You can see the forecast by logging on to WSEE.tv.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

At the "Petelin Ranch", our weeping cherry tree is in full bloom.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Now, with recycling and energy efficiency being more cost effective than ever, it is not too difficult to be a good steward to the planet on which we live.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

This past weekend is one for the record books. Saturday (April 19th), Erie hit 84 degrees, breaking the old record of 83. That record was set in 1941.

Considering the average high temperature for April 19th is 57, it is easy to tell that we were enjoying some VERY warm conditions. Actually, the warmest since October 5th, when we hit 87!

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Here are the stats from the USGS website:

Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time Friday, April 18, 2008 at 09:37:00 UTC
Friday, April 18, 2008 at 04:37:00 AM at epicenter
Location 38.450°N, 87.890°W
Depth 11.6 km (7.2 miles) set by location program
Region ILLINOIS
Distances 7 km (5 miles) NNE (13°) from Bellmont, IL
9 km (6 miles) E (88°) from Bone Gap, IL
11 km (7 miles) N (350°) from Keensburg, IL
41 km (26 miles) SW (232°) from Vincennes, IN
60 km (38 miles) NNW (331°) from Evansville, IN
206 km (128 miles) E (95°) from St. Louis, MO

Earthquake Summary

The following is a release by the United States Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center: An earthquake occurred 35 km (20 miles) SW of Vincennes, Indiana and 205 km (125 miles) SW of INDIANAPOLIS, Indiana at 3:36 AM MDT, Apr 18, 2008 (4:36 AM CDT in Illinois). The magnitude and location may be revised when additional data and further analysis results are available.

Felt Reports

Reports of minor structural damage in West Salem, Illinois and Louisville, Kentucky. Felt over a wide area of the central United States with felt reports as far west as Kansas, as far north as the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and as far south as Georgia.

Tectonic Summary

EARTHQUAKES IN THE ILLINOIS BASIN - OZARK DOME REGION
This large region borders the much more seismically active New Madrid seismic zone on the seismic zone's north and west. The Illinois basin - Ozark dome region covers parts of Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, Missouri, and Arkansas and stretches from Indianapolis and St. Louis to Memphis. Moderately frequent earthquakes occur at irregular intervals throughout the region. The largest historical earthquake in the region (magnitude 5.4) damaged southern Illinois in 1968. Moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the region each decade or two, and smaller earthquakes are felt about once or twice a year. In addition, geologists have found evidence of eight or more prehistoric earthquakes over the last 25,000 years that were much larger than any observed historically in the region.

Earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S., although less frequent than in the western U.S., are typically felt over a much broader region. East of the Rockies, an earthquake can be felt over an area as much as ten times larger than a similar magnitude earthquake on the west coast. A magnitude 4.0 eastern U.S. earthquake typically can be felt at many places as far as 100 km (60 mi) from where it occurred, and it infrequently causes damage near its source. A magnitude 5.5 eastern U.S. earthquake usually can be felt as far as 500 km (300 mi) from where it occurred, and sometimes causes damage as far away as 40 km (25 mi).

FAULTS
Earthquakes everywhere occur on faults within bedrock, usually miles deep. Most bedrock in the Illinois basin – Ozark dome region was formed as several generations of mountains rose and were eroded down again over the last billion or so years.

At well-studied plate boundaries like the San Andreas fault system in California, often scientists can determine the name of the specific fault that is responsible for an earthquake. In contrast, east of the Rocky Mountains this is rarely the case. The Illinois basin - Ozark dome region is far from the nearest plate boundaries, which are in the center of the Atlantic Ocean, in the Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of California. The region is laced with known faults but numerous smaller or deeply buried faults remain undetected. Even the known faults are poorly located at earthquake depths. Accordingly, few earthquakes in the region can be linked to named faults. It is difficult to determine if a known fault is still active and could slip and cause an earthquake. As in most other areas east of the Rockies, the best guide to earthquake hazards in the Illinois basin – Ozark dome region is the earthquakes themselves.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

While many have their preference as to which of the books to consult (only when they do not have a computer to access wsee.tv), they both have one BIG similarity...

A hole punched in the upper, right corner! Many wonder why it is there, others may not have noticed until now. What is the hole for?

Wonder no more! The hole punched in the corner started off as something functional, then become traditional. Waaaaay back in the good old days, as Joey Stevens may attest (just kidding), the hole was punched in the corner of these publications so they could either hang from a nail or a string in the outhouse (or library depending on the amount of time spent "studying". Ever since, the tradition has been kept.

That is the "hole" truth, and nothing but the truth.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist

When it comes to weather, clouds are created by instability, or rising air. As the sun heats the ground, the air lifts, condensing the moisture and creating clouds. When the air is stable there is a sinking motion that occurs, drying the air out, meaning no clouds.

Since the lake water temperature is still only 40 degrees while inland it was in the mid 40's, we see the more stable (sinking) air located over the lake, and in the immediate vicinity of the lake. This, while our inland conterparts are seeing fair weather clouds develop because of the instability (rising motion).

Now you know why the city is a little sunnier than our inland counterparts this time of year. In the winter, when the lake is warmer than the air (and the winds are calm), we see the reverse... clouds over the lake, while inland locations stay sunnier.

The satellite images for this blog posting were provided by NexSat.

Ray Petelin,
WSEE Storm Team Meteorologist